Due to a lack or poor quality of weather and climate observations, today’s weather prediction models are short of the ultimate limit of predictability, and there is ample room for further improvement in predictability. A coordinated effort to design better models and increase the availability of surface-based data that feed these models could lead to 10-day forecasts reaching an accuracy equivalent to today’s 5-day forecasts. Each day of additional warning gives decision makers more time to prepare for increasingly record-breaking storms, forest fires, droughts, heatwaves, and floods and better understand adaptation challenges they will face and prepare and respond accordingly.
The estimated global annual benefit of weather and climate prediction is about USD 158 billion. The potential benefits directly attributed to the full implementation of GBON are assessed to be around USD 5 billion per year. The required investments to improve and sustain GBON in low- and middle-income countries would yield a cost-benefit ratio of more than 1:26. This means for every dollar invested, at least twenty-six dollars in socio-economic returns would be realized. While all regions would benefit from these improvements, regions with significant populations but limited observation networks would benefit the most, particularly Africa. Other parts of the globe will also profit from medium to long-range forecast improvements (World Bank research paper, in the process to be published).
